AMZN · Equity Scorecard · Methodology: 35% Valuation · 35% Financial Health · 30% Growth/Catalysts · Data as of Apr 2026
Consumer/Tech/Cloud AWS · Retail · Ads · AI April 2026
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc. · NASDAQ · Seattle, WA
Price (Apr 17, 2026)
$250.56
52W: $165.29 — $258.60 · Mkt Cap ~$2.66T · PE ~34x
Overall Score
68/100
Composite — Valuation 35% · Health 35% · Growth 30%
Hold / Add on Pullback to $210–220
Score Breakdown
Valuation / Entry
16/35
Financial Health
26/35
Growth / Catalysts
26/30
Key Metrics — FY2025 Actuals
Revenue FY25
$716.9B
+12% YoY
AWS Revenue
$128.7B
+21% YoY · Q4: +24%
Op. Income FY25
~$68B
~9.5% margin
Op. Cash Flow
$139.5B
+20% YoY
PE Trailing
34x
EPS TTM: $7.29
EV / EBITDA
~15x adj.
Ex. capex suppression
CapEx 2026 Guide
~$200B
+53% vs 2025 ($131B)
AWS Backlog
$244B
+40% YoY · +22% QoQ
Price Range — Entry Context
52W Low: $165.29 Current $250.56 — 92% of range · 3% below 52W peak 52W High: $258.60
Low Near 52W highs — not a cheap entry. Better entry at $210–220 pullback. High
Signal Flags
✓ AWS +24% — fastest in 13 quarters ✓ AWS backlog $244B +40% ✓ Op. cash flow $139.5B ✓ Advertising $85B ARR +22% ✓ ROE 22%, ROIC 14% ✓ PE ~26x — near 3Y low vs. 5Y avg 48x ⚠ CapEx $200B — FCF near zero 2026 ⚠ AWS growth gap: Azure +40%, GCP +34% ⚠ Q1 2026 op. income guide wide: $16.5–21.5B ⚠ Leo satellite ~$1B incremental Q1 cost drag ✗ EV/FCF ~357x — FCF suppressed by design ✗ Tariff risk on retail margins (US-China)
Investment Thesis

Amazon is three compounding engines in one ticker. AWS at $142B ARR with 35% margins is the most durable cloud infrastructure franchise. Advertising ($85B ARR, +22%) is structurally underpriced relative to Meta/Google because it attaches to purchase intent. Retail is the cash-flow-neutral distribution layer that makes everything else cheaper to scale. The $244B backlog growing 40% gives multi-year visibility on AWS returns. The $200B capex is the market's current debate — but AWS capacity constraints were costing Amazon deals, and this investment directly addresses that gap. At $250, the business quality is unquestioned. The entry timing is the variable.

Primary Risk

Priced near all-time highs with FCF near zero. At $250 e PE 34x, il multiplo sconta già la perfetta esecuzione del capex cycle. Se AWS cresce sotto il 20% o i ritorni sul $200B capex tardano, la compressione multipla è violenta. Il FCF trailing è $11.2B su $2.66T di market cap — EV/FCF >200x. Questo funziona solo se credi che il 2028 produca un salto strutturale in earnings. Aggiungere ora significa pagare per quella visione senza sconto. Entry ottimale a $210–220: PE ~28x forward, dà margine se i numeri deludono.

AMZN · Deep Dive — Segments · Financials · Monitoring Triggers
Segment Analysis — Q4 2025
SEGMENTREVENUE SCALEQ4 REVOP MARGIN
North America
$127.1B 9.1%
AWS
$35.6B 35.1%
International
$50.7B 2.0%
Advertising
$21.3B ~60%+
AWS is 17% of revenue but drives ~67% of operating income. Advertising is the hidden margin gem — structurally attached to purchase intent at Meta/Google-like economics.
Financial History — Annual
Period Total Revenue AWS Revenue Op. Income Op. Margin Op. Cash Flow CapEx
FY2022 $514B $80.1B $12.2B 2.4% -$1.8B $63.6B
FY2023 $575B $90.8B $36.9B 6.4% $84.9B $52.7B
FY2024 $638B $107.6B $68.6B 10.8% $115.9B $83.1B
FY2025 $716.9B $128.7B ~$68B ~9.5% $139.5B $131.8B
2026E ~$800B ~$155B+ Q1: $16.5–21.5B ~8–9% ~$150B+ ~$200B
CapEx Analysis — The $200B Question

$200B capex in 2026 is the central investor debate. Amazon deployed $131.8B in 2025 (+58% YoY), guiding ~$200B for 2026 (+53%). This is the largest capital program in corporate history for a single year. Operating cash flow of $139.5B means traditional FCF is near-zero. The thesis for this bet: AWS backlog at $244B (+40%) with enterprises signing multi-year AI and cloud commitments gives high visibility on returns. Trainium custom silicon is ramping to multi-billion ARR. Data center capacity constraints were losing AWS deals to Microsoft and Google — this capex addresses that gap directly. Timeline: Returns visible in financial statements by H2 2027. Requires patience through 2026 FCF near-zero environment.

Valuation Framework
Metric Current (~$190) Bull Case Base Case Bear Case Note
PE FY26E ~22x 30x → $270+ 25x → $225 18x → $162 EPS FY26E ~$8.50-9
AWS EV/Rev ~13x FY26E AWS 16x → rerating 13x → hold 9x → compression AWS ~$155B ARR FY26E
EV/EBITDA ~15x adj. 20x → $240+ 16x → $200 12x → $150 EBITDA ~$130B normalized
Historical PE avg 34x vs 48x 5Y avg — — — 30% below 5Y avg PE
Key Catalysts — 2026
Apr 29, 2026 Q1 2026 Earnings — Op. income guidance range resolution, AWS growth rate, advertising momentum Earnings
H1 2026 Trainium ramp confirmation — Multi-billion ARR custom AI silicon driving AWS margin expansion AI Silicon
H1 2026 Amazon Leo satellite deployment milestone — Broadband from space, extends AWS reach globally Infrastructure
2026 AWS growth sustaining ≥22% — Validates capex returns thesis; key re-rating catalyst Fundamental
2026 Prime Video advertising ramp — Incremental high-margin revenue on existing subscriber base Ads
Add / Hold Triggers
AWS growth ≥22% sustained — backlog $244B gives visibility; if maintained, capex returns are on track
Q1 earnings op. income ≥$19B — midpoint of wide guide; confirms Leo satellite cost is one-time not structural
Advertising continues ≥20% growth — this business alone is worth $400-500B in standalone value
Price ≤$170–175 — PE ≤20x forward, historically extreme discount; conviction add
Reduce / Exit Triggers
AWS growth decelerates below 18% — signals Microsoft/Google winning disproportionate AI workloads
CapEx revised upward again beyond $220B — return-on-invested-capital timeline extends further, FCF story breaks
North America retail margin compression below 7% — tariff impact materializing in gross margin line
AWS backlog growth stalls below 25% — leading indicator of demand; lags revenue by 12-18 months